Paraguay vs Australia: Goalscorer Tips & Predictions

Paraguay and Australia meet in a high-stakes FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D finale, with both sides knowing exactly what they need. The goalscorer markets are where the real value lives in a match this open, and this guide cuts straight to who scores, when and why, alongside match odds, best bets and the key player matchups that shape every pick.

Goalscorer Markets Explained

The three core scorer markets are anytime scorer, first scorer and last scorer. Anytime scorer pays out if your player finds the net at any point in the match, making it the most forgiving and most popular entry point. First scorer narrows the window to the opening goal and carries higher odds to reflect that. Last scorer is the riskiest of the three, as late substitutes and stoppage-time goals can flip the result.

What drives value in these markets is minutes played, positional role and set-piece or penalty duty. A striker who plays 90 minutes and takes penalties is far more likely to score than a wide midfielder who rotates out at 60. In a match where both teams are chasing qualification, expect high intensity, open transitions and set-piece situations, all of which inflate the value of players who are on the pitch longest and carry dead-ball responsibility. Odds across these markets are available via Dexsport at the time of writing.

Anytime and First Scorer Picks

For Paraguay, Julio Enciso is the standout anytime scorer pick. The 22-year-old attacker is one of Alfaro's most creative outlets and operates in the pockets where World Cup goals get made. Alongside him, Antonio Sanabria as the focal point of the attack and Miguel Almiron as a dynamic runner from midfield both warrant consideration. Almiron's energy and ability to arrive late into the box makes him a credible anytime scorer at a price that likely reflects his midfield registration rather than his actual threat.

For Australia, Nestory Irankunda is the most compelling pick after scoring the opener against Turkey in the 27th minute. He is young, direct and clearly trusted to start. Connor Metcalfe scored Australia's second goal against Turkey in the 75th minute, which makes him worth considering for anytime scorer markets, particularly if Australia sit back and hit on the break. Mathew Leckie, a senior attacking presence, is another reliable anytime pick given his role in Australia's forward line across multiple World Cup cycles.

Paraguay vs Australia Match Preview

This is the final Group D fixture for both sides and the stakes could not be clearer. Australia sit on three points after a 2-0 win over Turkey and a 2-0 defeat to the USA. They need a result against Paraguay to reach the Round of 32. Paraguay were beaten 4-1 by the USA in their opener and are also fighting to keep their qualification hopes alive heading into this decider.

Australia under Tony Popovic are built on counter-attacking pace and defensive resilience. Turkey's coach Montella specifically identified their speed on the break as their most dangerous weapon. Paul Okon-Engstler screens the midfield and was directly involved in setting up Irankunda's goal against Turkey. Paraguay under Gustavo Alfaro organise defensively around Palmeiras centre-back Gustavo Gomez, with Enciso and Almiron tasked with unlocking opponents. Alfaro has publicly demanded a fighting performance, describing his team as a side "nobody wants to face." Expect a physical, transition-heavy contest with genuine goalscoring moments at both ends.

Paraguay vs Australia Odds

Australia are priced as favourites at 2.30, reflecting their superior Group D performance so far. The draw at 3.15 and Paraguay at 3.10 are nearly identical, which underlines how uncertain the outcome is. Both teams to score and over/under markets are available via Dexsport's FIFA World Cup 2026 section, correct at time of writing.

Paraguay vs Australia Predictions

Best Bet: Nestory Irankunda anytime scorer. He scored against Turkey in the 27th minute and is clearly trusted to start and play the full match. Australia need a win, so Popovic will set up to attack. Irankunda's directness and early-game impact make him the most reliable scorer angle on the Australian side.

Value Bet: Miguel Almiron anytime scorer. Almiron is registered as a midfielder, which means his odds will be longer than his actual attacking contribution justifies. In a match where Paraguay must push forward to survive, Almiron's box-to-box energy and ability to arrive late into goalscoring positions makes him a genuine value pick at an inflated price.

Longshot Bet: Connor Metcalfe first scorer. He scored in the 75th minute against Turkey, which shows he arrives late and finds the net. If Australia play on the counter and absorb pressure early, a Metcalfe goal from a late run could come at a generous price for first scorer markets.

Why This Match Matters

Both teams entered this tournament knowing the final group game could define their entire campaign. Australia's three points from a 2-0 win over Turkey give them a platform, but the 2-0 defeat to the USA exposed vulnerabilities. Paraguay's 4-1 loss to the USA was a brutal start, but Alfaro's record in CONMEBOL qualifying, which included wins over Brazil and Argentina, shows this squad can perform under pressure. Australia's qualification story runs through this match, with the Socceroos at their sixth consecutive World Cup and desperate to reach the knockout rounds.

Paraguay Form and Australia Form

Paraguay qualified via CONMEBOL in sixth place, with memorable wins over Brazil (1-0) and Argentina (2-1) during the qualifying campaign. At the tournament, they lost 4-1 to the USA, with Mauricio scoring their consolation goal. Alfaro's squad includes Enciso, Almiron, Sanabria and centre-back Gustavo Gomez, with Fabian Balbuena anchoring the defensive line. Their predicted lineup against Turkey was: Fernandez; Caceres, G. Gomez, Alderete, Alonso; D. Gomez, Bobadilla, Cubas, Almiron; Enciso, Sanabria.

Australia opened with a composed 2-0 win over Turkey, with Irankunda scoring in the 27th minute and Metcalfe adding a second in the 75th. Debutant goalkeeper Patrick Beach made eight saves in that match. They then lost 2-0 to the USA. Paul Okon-Engstler, son of former Socceroo Paul Okon, set up Irankunda's goal and has been one of the tournament's emerging midfield presences. Their possible lineup against Turkey was: Ryan; Circati, Souttar, Herrington/Burgess; Italiano, Irvine, O'Neill, Bos; Metcalfe, Leckie, Toure.

Best Bets and Markets Worth Watching

• Nestory Irankunda anytime scorer backed by his goal against Turkey and Australia's need to attack
• Miguel Almiron anytime scorer as a value pick given his midfielder pricing versus his attacking role
• Both teams to score suits the open nature of a must-win situation for both sides
• Australia match winner at 2.30 (implied probability 43%) reflects their stronger group-stage performance
• Connor Metcalfe first scorer longshot for those looking for a bigger-priced angle with genuine backing

Popular Betting Options

For a World Cup match of this magnitude, crypto betting offers a fast and straightforward way to access the full range of markets, from first scorer to match result to both teams to score. Dexsport covers FIFA World Cup 2026 fixtures with goalscorer markets, match winner, over/under and more, with crypto deposits and withdrawals built in. It is worth checking available lines ahead of kickoff as goalscorer odds shift with team news and lineup confirmations.

Betting Tips

• Nestory Irankunda anytime scorer - scored against Turkey in the 27th minute, Australia need to win, he starts and attacks from the off
• Miguel Almiron anytime scorer - midfield pricing does not reflect his attacking role in a Paraguay side that must push forward
• Both teams to score - both sides need points, defensive caution is secondary to goalscoring in a final group game
• Australia match winner - implied probability of 43% reflects their three points and superior goal difference heading into the final round
• Connor Metcalfe anytime scorer - two goals in two games across Australia's group stage campaign, arrives late and finishes

Odds subject to change. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. 18+ only.

The Bigger Picture

Paraguay vs Australia is a genuine knockout match played inside the group stage. Alfaro's demand for a fighting performance, Australia's counter-attacking pace and the individual quality of Enciso, Almiron, Irankunda and Metcalfe all point to a match with goals and genuine drama. The goalscorer markets, particularly anytime scorer for Irankunda and Almiron, represent the sharpest way to engage with this fixture. Paraguay's World Cup history shows they are capable of rising to the occasion, but Australia's structure and momentum make them the side to back in the match result market.

FAQ

Who is most likely to score first? Nestory Irankunda is the strongest candidate based on available information. He scored in the 27th minute against Turkey and is expected to start and play aggressively from the opening whistle as Australia push for the win they need.

Which anytime scorer offers the best value? Miguel Almiron stands out as a value pick. His midfielder registration means his odds are likely longer than his genuine goalscoring threat warrants, particularly in a match where Paraguay must attack to survive.

Do penalties or set pieces affect the scorer picks? Yes, significantly. Players with penalty or set-piece duty carry a structural scoring advantage over 90 minutes. The research does not confirm specific penalty takers for either side, so the scorer picks here are based on positional role, minutes played and tournament form rather than dead-ball duty.

Should I consider a defender or midfielder to score? Almiron as a midfielder is already flagged as a value anytime scorer pick. Gustavo Gomez, Paraguay's Palmeiras centre-back, is a physical presence who could threaten at set pieces, but without confirmed set-piece data from the research, a midfielder like Almiron or Connor Metcalfe offers a more grounded case for inclusion in scorer multiples.